Every year I usually put something together for a few of my friends (that enjoy high school basketball as much as I do) that outlines what teams I think are going to make it to state, with a bit of reasoning sprinkled in. One of my friends, transplanted to AZ, suggested that I throw it on our blog. I know there aren't any pretty pictures, and it isn't as brief and to-the-point as a certain unnamed blog control freak would like - but here it is anyways! 4A and 3A are first - 1A and 2A to follow.
4A -- Projected state seed is in ( )
SS1 – Sioux City East (18-4) vs. Lewis Central (15-7) – winner = S.C. East (5)
**Pretty easy road for East, as there is zero 4A talent in western IA this year. East has a couple of 6’11 juniors (Woodbury & Thok) which pose match-up problems. Woodbury is an Iowa recruit, but I wasn’t impressed with what I saw of him last yr at the state tourney.
SS2 – WDM Valley (16-7) vs. Waukee (17-6) – winner = WDM Valley (8)
**Nice little rubber match rivalry as both split reg season games. Valley’s first-year head coach Jeff Horner is a former Hawkeye, and has state experience as a Mason City Mohawk (01-02). They have been riding 6’6 Junior Kale Abrahamson, who is avg 21.8 ppg. Waukee’s coach Matt Woodley was Dick Bennett’s top asst at Wash State, but came back home after Bennett left for Virginia and didn’t take him with him. He also has his brother on the bench, who led Iowa City High to a state title in 2006. After seeing both Waukee & Valley play Hoover, I’ll give the slight edge to Valley.
SS3 – Cedar Falls (17-4) vs. CR Jefferson (16-5) – winner = Cedar Falls (6)
**This will be a close one – battle among state leading scorer (26.2 ppg) and Wisconsin recruit Jarrod Uthoff for CR Jeff and 3-sport star (football, bball, and track) James Harrington (20 ppg) of CF. CF won their only match-up this season, 60-54 on the road. CF seems to be a little more balanced, and I believe will edge them out.
SS4 – CR Kennedy (17-5) vs. CR Washington (15-8) – winner = CR Kennedy (7)
**CR Kennedy beat CR Wash by 5 and by 7 in reg season. CR Wash has Iowa signee Josh Oglesby, but it seems like the better teams in the MVC haven’t had a problem neutralizing him – which should be a concern for Hawkeye fans.
SS5 – Iowa City West (18-4) vs. Davenport West (20-2) – winner = Davenport West (3)
**Tough to pick this one as I don’t know much about either team. It is experience (Dav West) against youth (City West) however. Dav West is having one of those dream seasons, and appears to be destined for state
SS6 – Linn-Mar (22-0) vs. North Scott (15-7) – winner = Linn-Mar (1)
**The duo of Paige & Bohannan will carry #1 Linn-Mar to state and beyond
SS7 – Ankeny (19-3) vs. Johnston (16-7) – winner = Ankeny (4)
**These two played 2 great OT games in the reg season, with Ankeny winning both. There may be a 3rd OT game for the pair, but I think Ankeny wins that one as well.
SS8 – DM Hoover (20-2) vs. Urbandale (17-6) – winner = DM Hoover (2)
**Hoover has been to sub-state the past 3 years, and has the talent to make it there again and get to state. This is likely the toughest substate region as Hoover & Dowling will be a dogfight (with Dowling playing pretty well now) and Urbandale & Roosevelt figures to be close if future star soph Peter Jok can light it up. In the end, I’ve got to think that Hoover has paid their dues and is ready to head back to state.
3A -- Projected state seed is in ( )
SS1 – Sioux City Heelan (21-2) vs. LeMars (18-5) – winner = Sioux City Heelan (2)
**The two-time defending 3A champs shouldn’t have much of a problem getting back to state. Alex Malloy, a key cog for their past two titles, is their leading scorer at 19 ppg. Their star PG Wesley Staten transferred to Heelan in the off-season from S.C. West, and is putting up 18.5 ppg in his new digs.
SS2 – MOC-Floyd Valley (20-3) vs. Carroll (21-2) – winner = MOC-Floyd Valley (6)
**MOC finally got away from Heelan in district play, which has knocked them out the past couple years. Carroll won’t be a picnic, but MOC should make it back to state for the first time since being state runner-up in ’06.
SS3 – Iowa Falls (22-1) vs. Waverly-Shell Rock (23-0) – winner = Waverly-Shell Rock (1)
**This one was tough to call as both have very similar tournament resumes. Both appear to be worthy of state inclusion, but I’ll give Waverly-Shell Rock the slight edge due to the road win they got over 4A Cedar Falls.
SS4 – Mount Vernon (16-7) vs. Benton-Van Horne (16-7) – winner = Mount Vernon (8)
**Not sure why Solon wasn’t placed in this bracket, as neither one of these teams pass the eye-test as a solid state tourney qualifier. Soak it up and say hello to the 8 seed!
SS5 – Solon (21-2)/Davenport Assumption (16-7) vs. Dubuque Wahlert (17-6) – winner = Davenport Assumption (7)
**Solon joining 3A this year created this 3-headed monster. Assumption plays all the 4A schools around Davenport, while Wahlert plays all the 4A schools in Iowa City/Cedar Rapids. Their records are usually not indicative of how well they can play at the 3A level, and this year is no different. If Solon can beat Assumption, I think Wahlert goes to state. But if Assumption gets past Solon, I think they beat Wahlert at substate for 2 yrs in a row to make it back to state. All three are deserving of state -- too bad the IAHSAA dropped the ball and threw them in the same region.
SS6 – Pella (19-3) vs. Mount Pleasant (21-2) – winner = Mount Pleasant (3)
**This is one of the more intriguing match-ups of the 3A substate games. MP lost at Pella by a deuce their 3rd game of the year. Also sitting in the back of their mind would be last year’s match-up in the state semi-final game where MP led by 10 at the break, then squandered the lead and lost. MP has all 5 starters back from last year’s squad, including Iowa fball recruit Henry-Krieger-Coble. Pella also has some key players back – should be a good one in Ottumwa.
SS7 – Grinnell (14-8) vs. Dallas Center-Grimes (21-2) – winner = DCG (4)
**DCG has been the class of north-central Iowa this year in 3A, and utilizing their experience should make it back-to-back state appearances pretty easily.
SS8 – Centerville (18-5) vs. Norwalk (20-3) – winner = Norwalk (5)
**Norwalk got lucky with the draw this year not getting Pella or Dallas Center-Grimes. The senior-laden crew should get back to the state tourney easily this year as Centerville just isn’t quite on the same level. They are led by Jake Logan’s 16 ppg and 12 rpg.
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