1A & 2A sub-state predictions

Upsets seem to happen more in the lower classes - so shoo your booky out of the room for these games!

2A -- Projected state seed is in ( )

SS1 – Hull-Western Christian (22-2) vs. Sioux Center (20-4) – winner = Hull-WC (4)
**This should be a good one, as Sioux Center will look to end Western’s dominance (4 straight state appearances with 3 titles). Western beat them by 10 in their only reg season match-up. I can’t imagine Tyler Wolterstorff (who is finally a senior – avg 19.4 ppg) letting Western lose this one.

SS2 – Ft. Dodge-St Edmond (20-3) vs. Emmetsburg (18-5) – winner = Ft Dodge-St Ed (6)
**The only losses for St Eds on the year were narrow losses to a couple of solid 3A squads (Iowa Falls & Webster City). A couple of juniors (Nick Clark, 19 ppg & Neil Flattery, 11 ppg) lead their attack.

SS3 – West Marshall-State Center (20-3) vs. PCM-Monroe (24-0) – winner = PCM (1)
**PCM has been at or near the top of the class 2A AP poll for the better part of the season. Although the Heart of Iowa conference was a little down this year, they had a solid non-conference win against Pella in late January to keep their undefeated season alive. They are led by 6’4 Junior Scott Bruxvoordt (20 ppg), who is an athletic specimen that can really jump -- but fellow Junior Jordan Van Roekel and Senior Josh Fosenburg make it hard for opposing defenses to key in on him too much.

SS4 – Dike-New Hartford (22-2) vs. Sheffield-West Fork (23-0) – winner = Dike-NH (5)
**Another difficult call, with two pretty solid teams. I like Dike’s schedule a little better (was tougher), so will go with them to win a close one.

SS5 – Cascade-W.Dubuque (23-1) vs. Dyersville-Beckman (15-9) – winner = Cascade-WD (2)
**Cascade-W Dubuque has the best defense statistically in 2A (and best overall in all classes) giving up only a little over 33 pts per game. Competition in the Tri-Rivers conference was scarce this year, but these two met in a mid-season tilt at Dyersville, with Cascade-WD pulling that one out 39-37. Expect another low-scoring game with Cascade making it back to state for the first time in a decade.

SS6 – Iowa City Regina (16-8) vs. Stanwood-North Cedar (22-2) – winner = IC Regina (8)
**West Branch/North Cedar should be a great semifinal – wouldn’t be shocked if West Branch won. Regina has played a pretty stout diet of 2A, 3A, and 4A schools, and I think it will pay off and send them to their first state tourney since ’02.
SS7 – Nodaway Valley (20-4) vs. Pella Christian (19-5) – winner = Pella Christian (7)
**Pella Christian should win this one going away. This P.C. team doesn’t seem to have the fire power that some of their past state teams have had, but they won’t need it to beat N.V.

SS8 – Logan-Magnolia (19-5) vs. Treynor (22-1) – winner = Treynor (3)
**Logan-Magnolia lucked out as IKM upset Carroll-Keumper in the district semi. Beyond that, the state will send the obligatory SW IA team to state so they can be over-seeded and crash and burn.




1A -- Projected state seed is in ( )

SS1 – Boyden-Hull (16-8) vs. Woodbury Central (21-3) – winner = Boyden-Hull (8)
**Central Lyon could throw a giant wrench in this if they beat Boyden-Hull in the district final (which could happen considering they split the regular season, and both games were close). Either way, whoever represents the Siouxland Conference at substate is going to Wells and likely getting the grossly deceiving 8 seed.

SS2 – Storm Lake-St Mary (23-1) vs. Algona-Garrigan (13-11) – winner = SL-St Mary (3)
**SL-St Mary has a balanced scoring attack with 4 of their starting 5 averaging in double figures. Apparently Garrigan already got beat (oops), but I don’t think it’ll matter who SL-St Mary faces.

SS3 – Cedar Falls NU High (22-2) vs. Tripoli (18-6) – winner = Cedar Falls NU High (4)
**NU High has put together a nice little run of 3 straight state appearances, with a title in ’08 as a highlight. Senior Kyle Denning leads this year’s squad with 17.6 ppg, and they shouldn’t have much trouble making it to a 4th straight state tourney.

SS4 – Clinton Prince of Peace (22-2) vs. Iowa Mennonite (23-1) – winner = IMS (2)
**IMS has been on an every other year state tourney run the past few years (’05, ’07, ’09) – and this year could add to the pattern. They are led by Soph Chance Miller, who scores at a 15 ppg clip. This private school battle could be close though, as Prince of Peace has a senior-dominated lineup.

SS5 – Danville (24-0) vs. Sigourney (21-2) – winner = Danville (1)
**Danville has been ranked near the top of the class 1A most of the year, and took full advantage of their opportunity to jump to #1 when they knocked off previously top-rated IMS their second to last regular season game (64-59). They are led by the super-Soph Soukup twins (Steven and Michael), who both go 6’4, and can both fill it up on any given night. Steven is averaging 19.4 ppg, and Michael is avg 17.7. Sigourney and Keota are two pretty decent teams, but I don’t think either will have an answer for the twins.

SS6 – North Tama (20-4) vs. Colo-Nesco (21-2) – winner = North Tama (5)
**If North Tama makes it to substate, they will have earned it getting past Lynnville-Sully, who finished 4th last year at state. The main reason I like North Tama is their talented senior duo of Lucas Hefty and Brendon Boerm. The pair led North Tama to a stunning 1A title in football this past fall by knocking off Madrid in a crazy title game. Boerm was the do-everything left-handed QB and Hefty was his #1 target at WR. Hefty is avg 16.5 ppg on the hardwood, whileBoerm is avg 13.7 ppg.

SS7 – Guthrie Center (18-7) vs. DM GV Park Bapt (18-6) – winner = DM GV PB (7)
**Park Baptist doesn’t have the best record, but plays mostly 2A teams in the Heart of Iowa conference. That level of competition will be enough to get them to state in 1A. They are led by Senior 20 ppg scorer Reed Mells.

SS8 – Boyer Valley-Dunlap (18-5) vs. Riverside-Oakland (16-8) – winner = BV-Dunlap (6)
**This is the token west-central IA team to make it to state. They’re not terrible, but not great either.

Sub-State Basketball Predictions

Every year I usually put something together for a few of my friends (that enjoy high school basketball as much as I do) that outlines what teams I think are going to make it to state, with a bit of reasoning sprinkled in. One of my friends, transplanted to AZ, suggested that I throw it on our blog. I know there aren't any pretty pictures, and it isn't as brief and to-the-point as a certain unnamed blog control freak would like - but here it is anyways! 4A and 3A are first - 1A and 2A to follow.

4A -- Projected state seed is in ( )

SS1 – Sioux City East (18-4) vs. Lewis Central (15-7) – winner = S.C. East (5)
**Pretty easy road for East, as there is zero 4A talent in western IA this year. East has a couple of 6’11 juniors (Woodbury & Thok) which pose match-up problems. Woodbury is an Iowa recruit, but I wasn’t impressed with what I saw of him last yr at the state tourney.

SS2 – WDM Valley (16-7) vs. Waukee (17-6) – winner = WDM Valley (8)
**Nice little rubber match rivalry as both split reg season games. Valley’s first-year head coach Jeff Horner is a former Hawkeye, and has state experience as a Mason City Mohawk (01-02). They have been riding 6’6 Junior Kale Abrahamson, who is avg 21.8 ppg. Waukee’s coach Matt Woodley was Dick Bennett’s top asst at Wash State, but came back home after Bennett left for Virginia and didn’t take him with him. He also has his brother on the bench, who led Iowa City High to a state title in 2006. After seeing both Waukee & Valley play Hoover, I’ll give the slight edge to Valley.

SS3 – Cedar Falls (17-4) vs. CR Jefferson (16-5) – winner = Cedar Falls (6)
**This will be a close one – battle among state leading scorer (26.2 ppg) and Wisconsin recruit Jarrod Uthoff for CR Jeff and 3-sport star (football, bball, and track) James Harrington (20 ppg) of CF. CF won their only match-up this season, 60-54 on the road. CF seems to be a little more balanced, and I believe will edge them out.

SS4 – CR Kennedy (17-5) vs. CR Washington (15-8) – winner = CR Kennedy (7)
**CR Kennedy beat CR Wash by 5 and by 7 in reg season. CR Wash has Iowa signee Josh Oglesby, but it seems like the better teams in the MVC haven’t had a problem neutralizing him – which should be a concern for Hawkeye fans.

SS5 – Iowa City West (18-4) vs. Davenport West (20-2) – winner = Davenport West (3)
**Tough to pick this one as I don’t know much about either team. It is experience (Dav West) against youth (City West) however. Dav West is having one of those dream seasons, and appears to be destined for state

SS6 – Linn-Mar (22-0) vs. North Scott (15-7) – winner = Linn-Mar (1)
**The duo of Paige & Bohannan will carry #1 Linn-Mar to state and beyond

SS7 – Ankeny (19-3) vs. Johnston (16-7) – winner = Ankeny (4)
**These two played 2 great OT games in the reg season, with Ankeny winning both. There may be a 3rd OT game for the pair, but I think Ankeny wins that one as well.

SS8 – DM Hoover (20-2) vs. Urbandale (17-6) – winner = DM Hoover (2)
**Hoover has been to sub-state the past 3 years, and has the talent to make it there again and get to state. This is likely the toughest substate region as Hoover & Dowling will be a dogfight (with Dowling playing pretty well now) and Urbandale & Roosevelt figures to be close if future star soph Peter Jok can light it up. In the end, I’ve got to think that Hoover has paid their dues and is ready to head back to state.



3A -- Projected state seed is in ( )

SS1 – Sioux City Heelan (21-2) vs. LeMars (18-5) – winner = Sioux City Heelan (2)
**The two-time defending 3A champs shouldn’t have much of a problem getting back to state. Alex Malloy, a key cog for their past two titles, is their leading scorer at 19 ppg. Their star PG Wesley Staten transferred to Heelan in the off-season from S.C. West, and is putting up 18.5 ppg in his new digs.
SS2 – MOC-Floyd Valley (20-3) vs. Carroll (21-2) – winner = MOC-Floyd Valley (6)
**MOC finally got away from Heelan in district play, which has knocked them out the past couple years. Carroll won’t be a picnic, but MOC should make it back to state for the first time since being state runner-up in ’06.

SS3 – Iowa Falls (22-1) vs. Waverly-Shell Rock (23-0) – winner = Waverly-Shell Rock (1)
**This one was tough to call as both have very similar tournament resumes. Both appear to be worthy of state inclusion, but I’ll give Waverly-Shell Rock the slight edge due to the road win they got over 4A Cedar Falls.

SS4 – Mount Vernon (16-7) vs. Benton-Van Horne (16-7) – winner = Mount Vernon (8)
**Not sure why Solon wasn’t placed in this bracket, as neither one of these teams pass the eye-test as a solid state tourney qualifier. Soak it up and say hello to the 8 seed!

SS5 – Solon (21-2)/Davenport Assumption (16-7) vs. Dubuque Wahlert (17-6) – winner = Davenport Assumption (7)
**Solon joining 3A this year created this 3-headed monster. Assumption plays all the 4A schools around Davenport, while Wahlert plays all the 4A schools in Iowa City/Cedar Rapids. Their records are usually not indicative of how well they can play at the 3A level, and this year is no different. If Solon can beat Assumption, I think Wahlert goes to state. But if Assumption gets past Solon, I think they beat Wahlert at substate for 2 yrs in a row to make it back to state. All three are deserving of state -- too bad the IAHSAA dropped the ball and threw them in the same region.

SS6 – Pella (19-3) vs. Mount Pleasant (21-2) – winner = Mount Pleasant (3)
**This is one of the more intriguing match-ups of the 3A substate games. MP lost at Pella by a deuce their 3rd game of the year. Also sitting in the back of their mind would be last year’s match-up in the state semi-final game where MP led by 10 at the break, then squandered the lead and lost. MP has all 5 starters back from last year’s squad, including Iowa fball recruit Henry-Krieger-Coble. Pella also has some key players back – should be a good one in Ottumwa.

SS7 – Grinnell (14-8) vs. Dallas Center-Grimes (21-2) – winner = DCG (4)
**DCG has been the class of north-central Iowa this year in 3A, and utilizing their experience should make it back-to-back state appearances pretty easily.

SS8 – Centerville (18-5) vs. Norwalk (20-3) – winner = Norwalk (5)
**Norwalk got lucky with the draw this year not getting Pella or Dallas Center-Grimes. The senior-laden crew should get back to the state tourney easily this year as Centerville just isn’t quite on the same level. They are led by Jake Logan’s 16 ppg and 12 rpg.

Iowa/Minnesota bball

Carver-Hawkeye Arena pre-game, from the awesome seats my buddy Chad scored for us.

Basabe won the tip, but that was about the only thing he did right all day.

Rough day for the Hawks.

Sarah's Baby Shower

What could be better than great friends, right?

Here is most of our gang from high school. Tara, Kara, Amanda, Sarah, me, Laura, Megan and her newest addition to our group - Drew. Isn't he adorable? :)

How about great friends who are going through the same experience at the same time?? :)

Sarah's first baby is due on March 20th. Here she is at 36 weeks while I am at 29 weeks. She had a beautiful bridal shower in Des Moines on Saturday. It was a great day to spend catching up with friends. I had a wonderful time.

Sarah - the Nelsons are SO excited to meet your little one!

February Madness

I like the close competition. I like the rivalries. I like the passion. I like the desire. I like the unpredictability. College does it a solid in March, but High School does it up right in this very month. Sure the state tourney is the 2nd week in March, but the road to the Well starts here. My wife wonders why I care so much. I don't have a kid playing (yet), don't have a close relative playing, don't have anybody I really know playing. She'll maybe never understand. I don't have a dog in the fight, but am a sucker for talent and competition. When Harrison was lighting up gyms all over central Iowa last year, I was there. I was actually there when he was a soph, playing at Waukee High School... when he grabbed a rebound off a missed shot and dunked it home in one motion. As often as possible from that point forward, I went to see him play. Not because I knew him personally or he knew me personally, but because I knew he might be a once-in-a-lifetime talent. I followed him as a soph, junior, and senior and saw his game progress, grow, mature, and blossom.

Now that he's wearing Carolina Blue, I wasn't sure if the high school game would capture me as deeply this year, or if at all. But then I thought about Hoover. If you're wondering what I mean by Hoover, I'm talking about Herbert Hoover High School in Des Moines. It's located a few blocks east of the Merle Hay Mall on Aurora. It's not the worst part of town, but it's not the best part either. When I saw them win the 4A title in '06, I think it was probably the first time I saw them play. They had a style and swagger that you don't always see. Growing in small town SE Iowa, this was a trip. When Barnes was a junior a couple of years ago, Ames had a late-season game at Hoover. I went to see Barnes, but came away more impressed with the young talent Hoover had. They were raw, but talented - and gave Barnes & Co one of the biggest challenges they had all year. They had a frosh PG that was smaller (but also quicker) than any frosh I had ever seen (Dwight Sistrunk Jr), had a sometimes erratic, but talented 6'6 soph PF/C (Reggie White), and a couple of other sophs that had good size & quickness (Onterier Brown & Kelly Madison). They made it to sub state that year, so I went to see them play (Urbandale). Although they maybe had more talent, you could tell in the first 2 mins they weren't going to win. The zebras were calling the game extremely tight, and that's just not Hoover's style. They're up in your grill on defense... constantly poking and prodding... harassing... until either the ref's blow the whistle or you make a mental mistake. A couple of them had 3 fouls before the first quarter was even over and barely played the first half. They dug a hole and it was game over.

One year later and it was the same kids, another year wiser (you would hope) - and they again advanced to sub state. This time playing SE Polk, and their star SG Kody Ingle. Madison did his best to stay in Ingle's jock all night long, but he still got his points. The real difference was White, and his inability to avoid the "stupid foul". The over-the-back when the other team clearly had the board... or the senseless reach in the back court. He had 'em all and had to sit during key portions of the game. SE Polk's team was Ingle... and if Hoover was able to keep the ball out of his hands and pound the ball inside with White, I think they could've won. As it was, they still had a shot to win it at the buzzer with a 3 from Madison. So close... yet so far.

Fast-forward to this year. The same frosh and sophs are now junior and seniors. It's now or never time for these guys that have showed so much promise. The past 3 years they have been to sub state, and 3 years come up short. Can they do it this year? Of course I think they can, but there are just as many reasons why I think they won't. Positively thinking, the best reason they'll make it to state is that they have the best defense in the state. They only give up 35 points per game as a team, and all the credit goes to their stifling man-to-man pressure and the athleticism of the kids on the floor. Four of the starting five are 6'4 or taller, and they're all long, quick, and fast. Translation: very hard to score on! The next best reason they'll make it to state is that you can't key on just one guy. If you try to shut down Madison (as teams have), Kortlin Jackson has shown that he will knock down the corner jumper and kill you. White has become more controlled and less prone to commit the stupid foul, a better free-throw shooter, and is the inside presence they need to open things up outside for Madison. The most improved player might be at the point though. Sistrunk Jr. is still as quick as we was as a frosh, and will drive your point guard bonkers with his twitchy lightning-fast quickness on defense and drive your head coach nuts with his ability to penetrate the defense when he has the ball in his hands.

That all sounds great -- so how could this senior-laden team with so much talent not make it to state?? The #1 reason is the unpredictability with officiating. The refs did a pretty good job last year in their games... but if they get a trio of refs like they had at sub state 2 years ago who decide that any little hand-check is going to be a foul, they'll have to adjust. And I honestly don't know if they can. They also like to hold the ball too much (for my shot-clock seeking soul). Example: in the Waukee game this year there was 1:04 left on the clock in the 1st quarter, and they held it for the last shot. It would be great if they got a good look at the basket for that final shot, but they ended up throwing up a contested shot that they could've taken at any point in the possession. They are bigger and faster and quicker... so why not just try to outrun 'em?? The other thing that might trip them up is the level of their competition. They'll likely play an experienced Dowling team right off the bat on Friday in the district semi, which will be tough. Dowling went to state last year, so knows what it takes. If they make it past Dowling, Urbandale/Roosevelt are lurking on the bottom of the bracket. Hoover doesn't want Roosevelt, as they are their rival and have a future star in soph Peter Jok. So it won't be easy. But they can do it. I've seen what they can do... seen what they have gone through... so it would be a feel-good story if they made it. The beauty of the madness though is that you can't just stamp 8 teams as being the best in the state and usher them in. Hopefully Hoover's got what it takes this year.

28 Weeks

It's official.. my belly button is now poking through all of my shirts!

It's also official that we have hit the THIRD TRIMESTER. We are in the home stretch and I am still feeling great (fingers crossed).

I can't wait to hold this little babe in my arms. Only (approximately) 12 weeks to go!

Happy Valentine's Day

My Valentine was smart this year and purchased a sweet treat for his very pregnant wife who happens to be craving sweets just about every night. Good job babe. He went with 1/2 dozen cupcakes from Carefree Patissiere in Valley Junction.

After much consideration he ordered (from the top left) chocolate covered cherry, white almond, strawberry shortcake, lemon velvet, triple chocolate, and guinness chocolate.

YUM.

2 down, 4 to go.

The funny thing is that although these cupcakes were more than enough to make my day, what really did it was laughing hysterically with my husband about the name listed on the box when I opened them..

It's the little things... :)

Happy Valentine's Day from Libby, Baby, and Ruster Nelson!!

Super Sunday

Well, here it is... the thing you have all been waiting for -- my first post on this glorious new blog my wife created!! I've been told by the blog master that I have to stay focused on one topic and keep it brief. I know right now that I'm going to struggle mightily with both, but I'm going to try my darnedest! Topics could range widely, but will most likely gravitate back to my wife, our future child, sports, racing, or a giant blend of all said topics. Since I have to try to keep it dialed into one topic, you can imagine my frustration!

I don't think I have to remind anybody what is going on this Sunday at 5:35 CST. It is kind of a bittersweet moment for all sports fans, and especially fans of the sport where grown men get paid good money to beat the crap of each other. It is the biggest game of the year, and it also the last game of the year. For hardcore sprint car racing fans, the day after the final night of the Knoxville Nationals in mid-August is one of the most depressing days of the year. The best 10 days of racing the year usually has to offer is over, and reality bites. I don't have the exact same feeling after the Super Bowl ends, but I'm sure someone, somewhere is feeling empty and alone. Maybe that is why plenty of grown adults find a babysitter to watch the kids and pick that one night as a night to cut loose, indulge in a few, and probably call in sick the next day (because they can drink like they did when they were 24, but can't recover!).

There is an added twist this year as well thanks to the agonizing uncertainty over whether or not there will even be a season next year. The owners think the players make too much... the players think the owners make too much... blah blah blah. The TV execs that make gazillions off the game are the ones that won't be sleeping tonight, tomorrow night, or the next night... until the collective bargaining agreement is signed. Somebody will have to cave, just not sure which side will. The owners are asking for the already too-long season to be extended to 18 games... so I think they'll probably lose. Although as a fan I'd never complain about 2 more games to watch, even a super-freak body isn't meant to take the punishment doled out on a weekly basis to these guys. So I don't know. All I know is that I was like 6 years old the last time there was a labor dispute in pro football. I have a little more invested now, and am not sure if I am as equipped to take it in stride this time around! MLB had a strike, and popularity fell off the cliff... the NBA had a strike, and LeBron and others are just now starting to slowly resurrect the popularity (more on this in a future blog) ... the NHL had a strike, but nobody cares about hockey - ok, I don't anyways... but the point is, strikes are bad. Anyways, back to the game.

Most of the time it is a letdown. Wait, what? The biggest game of the year should have the two best teams playing for the title - so the game should be incredible. But it's not. We've actually been blessed with some great games lately (Giants over Patriots, Steelers over Cardinals, and last year's Saints over Colts was pretty good). But most of the 80's and 90's were a mess. For this one game though, it really doesn't matter. Friends gather, drink beer, eat incredible chili cheese dip that a friend's girlfriend will bring, and watch the best commercials that $3 mil and change can buy. It's fun, it's interesting, it's Super. My wife just asked me how long this was, which is probably my cue to stop typing. Have fun with your friends, family, cat, dog, or whoever else you may be enjoying Super Sunday with... and since the Packers knocked out my Bears, Go Steelers!!

26 Weeks

And my Blizzardday Birthday!

Here I am at 26 weeks and two days, on my birthday. My loving husband took me out to a wonderful dinner last night in celebration of my 28th birthday to avoid traveling through the blizzard that has fallen upon us and most of the US today. So, we are spending the night in!

The baby should currently be close to 2 pounds and 14 inches long from head to toe. It has been moving more regularly - much to my delight! Last night Rustin had the privilege of putting his head to my belly and was able to hear the heartbeat. That's one thing that he's been able to do that I can't! Luckily this pregnancy has been a breeze so far - and I hope it continues that way. :)